US Nowcast Model Says Recession Might Already Be Here

Bloomberg Economics’ new nowcast model flags that US GDP may have contracted in the second quarter. Coming hard on the heels of the first-quarter GDP drop, that would fit the popular definition of a recession as two consecutive quarters of negative growth. The view from BE’s US country team, as well as the consensus forecast, remains more sanguine -- anticipating a return to expansion. The negative reading from our nowcast, and that of the Atlanta Fed, underscores that risks are to the downside.