Doubts Grow Over Chinese Statistics as Covid Ravages Economy
Official data is extra dodgy in a political year. Luckily, it’s easier than ever to fact-check.
Yangshan Port in Shanghai on April 15.
Photographer: Ding Ting/Xinhua/Zuma Press
Even in a country where the credibility of official statistics frequently comes under question, a data release on April 18 looked particularly suspicious. It showed China’s gross domestic product growth accelerated to 4.8% in the first quarter, from 4% in the final three months of 2021, even though property sales worsened and lockdowns were imposed in dozens of cities.
With access to data from satellites, independent surveys, and industrial output, China watchers can make corrections to the official picture. Their information suggests the reality is worse, though some government numbers seem reliable. Here’s a user’s guide on China’s economic statistics this year.