Remarks
A Reliable Recession Indicator May Be Sending a False Alarm
The yield curve is close to inverting, but not for the usual reasons.
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Less than two years after the U.S. exited its last recession, Wall Street is talking about another one coming.
In normal times the yield curve runs uphill; that is, Treasuries with longer maturities offer higher yields than shorter-dated ones to compensate investors for the risk of tying up their money for longer periods. When longer-term yields sink close to or below shorter ones, it is a sign that investors are pessimistic about economic growth prospects—and often portends a recession.