U.S. Aid Would Push GDP Above Pre-Virus Trend by Midyear

The $1.9 trillion relief bill passed by the House is large enough to push U.S. gross domestic product above the pre-pandemic trend by midyear. Bloomberg Economics’ analysis of the composition and associated multipliers -- the response of growth to fiscal aid -- could mean GDP growth in the vicinity of 7.4% for the full year on a 4Q-over-4Q basis, the best since 1983. Still, the level settles toward the prior trend by the end of 2022.