Prognosis

In the Fog of Pandemic, Companies Are Embracing Epidemiology

Without clear guidance from government authorities, companies big and small are left to fend for themselves.

Illustration: Rose Wong for Bloomberg Businessweek

On the last day of February, when health officials in Washington state announced some of the earliest known Covid-19 cases in the U.S., a Microsoft Corp. executive emailed officials at the King County health department to ask for help. Seattle business leaders were meeting the next day, and “they would like someone that can best speak to what businesses should do,” wrote Colleen Daly, a senior benefits executive. In a follow-up the next morning, she wrote that companies were “spinning on” questions of whether to cancel events, restrict travel, or send workers home. “Since this is an emotional situation we are seeing businesses struggle to stay grounded,” she wrote.

It was an early brush with a problem now vexing companies everywhere: how to understand and respond to a new world of risks that most businesses have never encountered. Executives who’ve been around for a while have already had to learn how to steer their businesses through terrorist attacks, natural disasters, and financial crises. But no one alive today has ever before had to deal with this species of global calamity. It’s forced shutdowns of entire economic sectors, scrambled supply chains, and— at least in the U.S.—shown no sign of abating.