Where Howard Marks Looks for Signs of Market Trouble
The co-chairman of distressed debt investor Oaktree Capital says he worries when people start clamoring to get into risky investments.
Howard Marks, co-founder of Oaktree Capital Group.
Photographer: Christopher Goodney/Bloomberg
The last cycle ended in the biggest economic collapse since the Great Depression. How do you think this one will end?
The last one was marked by great excesses, not in the real economy but in the financial world. This time, I don’t see systemic excesses like those. The financial institutions are somewhat chastened by their experiences of 10 years ago. They haven’t been permitted to get nearly as levered as in the past, and they haven’t been permitted to engage in the same risky behavior. I don’t like to make predictions—and I never say never—but I don’t think we’re heading for a crash of similar proportions.