The Year Ahead/Technology

Chips Growth Looks Set to Stall

Tech giants’ infrastructure spending doubled in three years. That’s unlikely to continue.

Photographer: Tomohiro Ohsumi/Bloomberg

During Micron Technology Inc.’s latest quarterly earnings call in September, Chief Executive Officer Sanjay Mehrotra asked those listening to please forget the past. Yes, the memory-chip maker had just given a disappointing sales forecast for the current quarter, but it was just a temporary detour, he said. Investors want to believe this sort of thing. For four of the past five years, Micron has been a market favorite, proof the semiconductor boom was so strong that even memory-chip growth would keep rising for the foreseeable future.

But a buildup of inventory and a steady drop in prices have begun to undermine the industry line that an expanding range of new data-hungry artificial intelligence technologies, including driverless cars, will steadily fuel demand. With the chips business an unprecedented five years into a boom that’s doubled most of the big companies’ values, the consensus is building that winter is here.