Retirement

The Bull Market Could Ruin Your Retirement

Big gains have padded accounts, but the downside risk is larger than ever.

Illustration: Martin Groch for Bloomberg Businessweek

Here’s the good news for many people in their 60s and 70s: The long bull market has fattened retirement portfolios. But after such a long rally, we’ll likely see slowing growth or even a sharp decline in the markets. That, combined with increasing life spans, puts recent retirees in “a really unique and dangerous place,” says David Blanchett, head of retirement research at Morningstar Investment Management.

For retirees who take annual withdrawals from savings, a long stretch of below-average returns early on can make it impossible for a portfolio to fully recover. Even if the market outperforms later, the gain would be on such a depleted pot of savings that it wouldn’t undo the early damage.