Economics

What Happened to China’s Baby Bump?

Births are again trending down, despite the two-child policy.

Illustration: Thomas Colligan for Bloomberg Businessweek

When James Chen and Subrina Huang first heard in 2015 that top Communist Party of China officials had decided to end the decades-old one-child policy and allow all parents to have a second child, they excitedly considered trying for No. 2. “We thought we might like to have another,” says Chen, 35, sitting in a coffee shop in Shanghai. “I wanted a boy.”

No more. The couple already spends 20,000 yuan ($3,172) a year on extracurricular classes, including English and dance, for their 6-year-old daughter, and costs soar for children as they progress through school. Then there’s the housing issue. “With two children, we would have to consider buying a new place,” says Huang, 33, who earns 5,000 yuan a month working at a flooring company. That’s a daunting prospect in a city where property costs are 91 times the average after-tax salary, according to Numbeo, a website that compiles cost of living data. (In New York, the multiple is 25.)