The Year Ahead/Energy

Can the U.S. Crack the $90 Billion LNG Market?

Long-term contracts for liquefied natural gas are expiring, but a glut is keeping prices down.

A platform awaits installation offshore in Azerbaijan’s Shah Deniz gas field.

Source: BP

The $90 billion global market for liquefied natural gas will be reshaped in 2018 as a number of large, long-term contracts start to expire. Growing supplies from the U.S., higher demand in Europe and Asia, and geopolitical tension surrounding Russia and Qatar, the world’s two biggest gas suppliers, promise to shift long-established trading patterns.

For decades the majority of LNG bought and sold around the world has been governed by long-term contracts of up to 20 years. A fifth of those will expire from 2018 to 2020. Over the next decade, contracts governing 80 percent of all global LNG trade will be rewritten. For now, the LNG market is in the midst of an enormous supply glut, in part because of the advent of U.S. exports in the past two years. That glut is likely to persist until at least 2020, keeping prices low.