Is the Trump Bump Over?

There was always something precarious about the Trump Bump, the surge of enthusiasm among investors and businesspeople that followed Donald Trump’s surprise victory in November. People got excited partly because other people were excited: They believed optimism would be a self-fulfilling prophecy, setting off a virtuous spiral of spending, investment, and economic growth. Hope remains. Stocks rose almost 2 percent on April 24 and 25, partly in anticipation of the White House’s tax cut announcement.

But outside the financial markets, Trump enthusiasts haven’t gotten around to putting their money where their mouths are. Companies haven’t stepped up hiring and investment, and consumers haven’t gone on a spending binge. The virtuous spiral hasn’t started. The U.S. economy continues to grow at the 2 percent rate that marked most of the Obama years—far below the 3.5 percent, 4 percent, 5 percent, or more that Trump at various times claimed he’d achieve.