France Has a New Front-Runner. Can He Last?

With Fillon’s campaign in turmoil, Emmanuel Macron now has a real shot at the presidency.

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By Gregory Viscusi

February 10, 2017 at 12:00 AM UTC

This article is for subscribers only.

This article is part of the February 13, 2017 issue of businessweek.

If France’s 2017 presidential election were a movie, there would be no shortage of possible titles. Revenge of the Third Man or The Curse of the Front-Runner. Don’t like them? With two and a half months to go and the plot twists coming fast and thick, there will be plenty of other possibilities.

The French go to the polls on April 23 to choose from a slate of at least five major candidates. If no one wins more than 50 percent—and no one ever has—then the top two face off on May 7. In the primaries held in November by the Republicans, the traditional center-right party, a late surge took François Fillon past former Prime Minister Alain Juppé and former President Nicolas Sarkozy. That victory made the 62-year-old Fillon the front-runner to be the next president. The most likely scenario seemed to be that he’d defeat the National Front’s Marine Le Pen in the runoff as voters from other establishment parties coalesced around his candidacy to keep out the anti-European Union, anti-immigration Le Pen.