How Much Time Does Maduro Have?

As Governor Henri Falcón takes his morning jog through Barquisimeto, the capital of Lara state in Venezuela’s farming heartland, the scene is bleak. It’s not dawn, and the stores don’t open until 8 a.m., yet hundreds are lining up to buy food. Even after daybreak, windows will remain dark because of rolling blackouts; government services have collapsed; and hospitals are so crowded that the sick share beds.

Falcón is a rarity in a deeply polarized country: a lawyer and former military man who broke ranks with the late Hugo Chávez yet remains in power as part of the opposition. Three months ago, the opponents of Chávez’s successor, Nicolás Maduro, won an overwhelming victory in legislative elections. The opposition’s leaders decided to give Maduro six months before they would try to oust him legally. As Falcón runs through the city, nodding to constituents, he provides his analysis: Don’t expect anything to change soon; the suffering must get much worse before the Maduro government releases its grip on power. “We’re at the doorstep of the abyss, a catastrophe in the country,” he says. “But we’re not facing a crippled adversary. It would be naive to think so.”