The War for the Senate Will Be Decided in Florida

Democrats could reclaim a majority with just five more seats.

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By Greg Giroux and Toluse Olorunnipa

November 5, 2015 at 12:01 PM UTC

This article is for subscribers only.

This article is part of the November 9, 2015 issue of businessweek.

This year the fight for power in Washington will come down to a magic number: five. That’s how many seats Democrats need to reclaim a majority in the U.S. Senate, whether or not they keep the White House. Seven Senate seats held by Republicans will be contested in states Obama won in 2012, including his home state of Illinois.

The most competitive race may be in Florida. Marco Rubio has said he won’t run for reelection while he seeks the presidential nomination, leaving an open seat. The state, where Obama had his narrowest margin of victory in 2012, has a Republican governor, a U.S. senator from each party, and a Republican-controlled congressional delegation. “There’s no question that both national parties are going to pour a lot of money into this Senate race,” says Susan MacManus, a political science professor at the University of South Florida.