Why the Developing World Won't Catch the U.S. Economy's Cold

Last week the U.S. Commerce Department announced that first-quarter GDP growth for 2015 was an anemic 0.2 percent. This immediately sparked fears that a U.S. slowdown could lead to a global recession. But the cliché about America sneezing and the rest of the world catching the cold doesn’t hold like it used to. The U.S. isn’t as contagious as it was, and developing countries in particular are far more robust to economic shocks. That’s good news for everyone. It means less volatility in Asia, Africa, and Latin America, which contributes to happier people, greater political stability, and stronger long-term growth—all of which should help lift the U.S. out of its own doldrums.

A team of IMF researchers has looked at the long-term record of the world’s economies when it comes to growth and recession. They measured how long economies expanded without interruption, as well as the depth and length of downturns. Over the past two decades, low and middle-income economies have spent more time in expansions, while downturns and recoveries have become shallower and shorter. This suggests countries have become more resilient to shocks.