It's Rousseff vs. a Surprise Opponent

In Brazil’s presidential election, Aécio Neves was in third place—until the end. President Dilma Rousseff focused her firepower on the challenger she saw as the real threat, former Environment Minister Marina Silva. Silva aimed most of her criticism back at Rousseff. The result was a devastating loss for Silva and a surprise second-place finish for Neves, who will square off against Rousseff in the Oct. 26 runoff. He is now the sole target of the ruling Workers’ Party campaign machine, which carried out what Rousseff’s vice president called the “deconstruction” of Silva.

To beat Rousseff, the senator from Minas Gerais state will have to reassure lower-income voters that his plans to cut spending and bring down inflation won’t lower the welfare benefits that have helped pull 22 million people out of extreme poverty since Rousseff took office in January 2011. He will also have to convince former Silva voters that he is better placed than Rousseff to carry out Silva’s pledge of cleaning up Brazil’s corrupt politics, says Carlos Manhanelli, a São Paulo-based political marketing consultant. “He will have to show he’s not the boogeyman they’ll make him out to be,” he says. “He’ll need to get the Marina vote by raising the banner of renewal, showing that Dilma spells not change but … economic stagnation.”