MGM Makes Its Own Unexpected Journey

Bilbo Baggins, the hobbit enlisted to free a dwarf kingdom seized by a dragon, has two other tasks on his to-do list: Help restore Metro-Goldwyn-Mayer’s luster, and strengthen Time Warner’s franchise lineup now that Harry Potter and Christopher Nolan’s Batman have taken their final bows.

Advance sales and social media chatter for The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey suggest the studios will get what they want. Co-produced by MGM and Warner Bros.’ New Line Cinema, the film is forecast to generate at least $300 million in North American theaters after its Dec. 14 release, according to Exhibitor Relations analyst Jeff Bock. The first Lord of the Rings movie took in $313 million. The Hobbit could draw more if Oscar-winning director Peter Jackson, who is bringing J.R.R. Tolkien back to theaters after almost a decade, can attract an audience beyond hard-core Rings fans. Sales for the subsequent Hobbit films will likely increase, Bock says. “Three-hundred million dollars is the low end. It’s possible people are really attracted to the 3D, and that might boost grosses, so the financial curve is there. I’m not going to bet against Peter Jackson.”