The Real Threat Facing Spanish Lenders

While Europe’s sovereign debt crisis grabs all the headlines, distressed real estate may pose a bigger threat to the Spanish banking system. The country’s lenders hold about £30 billion ($41 billion) of unfinished homes and land that’s “unsellable,” according to Pablo Cantos, managing partner of MaC Group in Madrid. MaC Group is a risk adviser to several leading Spanish banks. “I’m really worried about the small and medium-size banks whose business is 100 percent in Spain and based on real estate growth,” says Cantos. He adds that only bigger, more diversified lenders such as Banco Santander, Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria, La Caixa, and Bankia are strong enough to survive their real estate losses: “I foresee Spain will be left with just four large banks.”

Spain’s central bank tightened rules last year to force lenders to set aside more reserves against property seized in exchange for unpaid debts and is pressing them to sell assets rather than wait for the market to recover from its four-year decline. Yet unloading the real estate may be difficult or impossible. Bank-owned land “in the middle of nowhere” and unfinished residential units will take as long as 40 years to sell, Cantos predicts. Fernando Rodríguez de Acuña Martínez, a consultant at Madrid-based adviser RR de Acuña & Asociados, has a more dire view. About 43 percent of unsold new homes are in exurbs far from city centers, he says, and “if you take into account population growth for these areas, there’s no demand for them. Not now or in 10 years.”