Has Trump Delivered on His Promises?
What These 12 Metrics Tell Us
President Donald Trump has credited his relentless — some would say exhausting — agenda since returning to the White House with producing an “economic miracle.” His “tough on crime” approach, he says, has driven down lawlessness across the country. Yet his approval ratings are sliding on issues central to his political brand: the economy and immigration.
Trump’s use of tariffs on imported goods as a blunt instrument of foreign policy has raised doubts among voters about his commitment to improving affordability. His sweeping tax bill, while expected to boost business investment, will effectively strip health coverage from millions of Americans. And his immigration crackdown has turned violent and deadly at times.
So beyond the rhetoric and political posturing, what do the numbers say about how the president’s policies have performed on the ground?
Every year, Bloomberg Opinion chooses specific metrics to cut through the noise and measure the current president’s results on the job. This year, the 12 data points our columnists broke down are more important than ever, with control of Congress hanging in the balance ahead of the midterms.
The analysis, in both text and video below, shares a consistent approach. For each issue, we focused on the numbers that best measured success, failure or something in between.
The “massive” deportations have gone too far
Trump came into office pledging to “carry out the largest deportation operation in American history.” He’s deployed a lot of money and manpower, but the federal government’s deportation statistics are not entirely reliable. And the administration’s brutal tactics, disregard of due process and frequent defiance of court orders have fueled widespread protests.
The White House has used the $170 billion that Congress appropriated for immigration enforcement over four years — equivalent to quintupling the previous combined budgets of Immigration and Customs Enforcement and Customs and Border Protection — to unleash a government-wide effort that includes agencies such as the FBI and the IRS. Gone are restrictions against arrests at churches, schools, hospitals and courthouses. Violent criminals are no longer the main priority.
Trump’s Big Deportation Claim Depends on Dodgy Data
Sources: US Department of Homeland Security; US Immigration and Customs Enforcement
Note: Fiscal years run Oct. 1–Sept. 30; FY2025 ICE removals are through Sept. 20. Deportations for Trump’s second term were reported by DHS on Dec. 19. Other repatriations include enforcement and administrative returns, but not expulsions under the CDC’s Title 42 order.
This approach has enabled the administration to “deport” 622,000 people under Trump, said the Department of Homeland Security in January. That is apparently less than the 778,000 repatriations that the Biden administration undertook in its last, full fiscal year. A rigorous comparison is impossible because DHS hasn’t provided a detailed breakdown of the numerous categories that seem to comprise its reported total of “deportations.” In fact, the agency has not provided certain monthly enforcement statistics at all — even a few of the crackdown’s biggest potential supporters have accused the government of padding the total with “fake” deportations.
There’s nothing fake, however, about the anguish and outrage triggered by the killings of two US citizens, Renee Good and Alex Pretti, at the hands of federal agents in Minneapolis in January. ProPublica has also identified more than 170 incidents in which American citizens were held against their will. While a majority of the public has supported the deportation of those in the US illegally, polls show that a growing majority now also believe that efforts to do so have gone “too far.”
Wages and the job market are worrying workers – for good reason
Trump promised to create “millions and millions of jobs” and “massively raise wages” for American workers. That sort of revolution isn’t happening — not yet at least. Instead, an already sluggish labor market has deteriorated a bit further, and inflation-adjusted wage growth is no better than what the Biden administration delivered in its final year.
After adding around 1.5 million jobs in 2024, US payrolls expanded by some 181,000 last year, the fewest in more than two decades outside of recession years. Part of that was by design: Government payrolls contracted by 186,000, thanks in part to Elon Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency, while Trump’s restrictive immigration policies weighed on headcounts at businesses.
Payroll Growth Has Slowed to a Crawl
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics via Bloomberg
Note: Earnings growth is measured year-over-year using December data.
But the increase in the unemployment rate to 4.3% from 4% when Trump took office is a sign that labor demand is contracting somewhat faster than supply. Young people are struggling to find their first jobs, and workers are more reluctant to leave their employers. While layoffs are rare, it’s taking the unemployed much longer to land their next roles.
Meanwhile, wage growth has failed to accelerate. Average hourly earnings grew 3.7% in the 12 months through December, a slight slowdown from a year earlier. More importantly, earnings adjusted for inflation grew just 1% in the period, similar to the average pace in 2024. Trump will hope that corporate benefits in Republicans’ tax legislation inspire a renewed wave of hiring and salary boosts this year.
Tariffs have discredited Trump’s affordability pitch
If frustration with inflation carried Trump back to the White House, frustration with high prices haunted his first year and will be pivotal in November’s midterm elections.
Trump has himself to blame. His campaign promised (implausibly) to rapidly restore affordability. Instead, a steady stream of headlines about tariffs pushing some prices higher has soured most Americans on the levies and Trump’s ability to tame cost-of-living pressures. When the Supreme Court struck down much of the administration’s global tariffs in February, the White House responded by promising to replace them using other legal tools.
Inflation Is Still Too High
Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics; Bloomberg
Note: The breakeven rate measures average inflation expected by Treasury investors over the next two years.
Consumers now spend more than they otherwise would on things including children’s clothing, furniture and motor vehicle parts. Research indicates cheaper versions of the same goods experienced faster price appreciation and hit low-income households harder. John Williams, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, estimated in January that tariffs added half a percentage point to the rate of inflation.
Still, moderating price increases for services, including shelter, allowed the consumer price index to defy economists’ worst fears. CPI rose 2.4% in January from a year ago, compared with 3% in January 2025. The personal consumption expenditures deflator, a favored inflation gauge, ended 2025 at 2.9% — still too far from the Fed’s 2% inflation target.
What’s worse is that the bond market’s signals of progress have stalled. Traders’ expectations for average annual inflation over the next two years jumped to 2.8% at the end of January from 2.3% on Dec. 31. While the effects of tariffs should roll off this year, investors may now worry about the Fed easing policy prematurely to appease Trump in the middle of an unprecedented AI investment boom.
Trump missed his promises on $2 gas and energy costs
Trump missed his year-one promise to halve energy costs and get average pump prices below $2 — by a lot.
Gasoline, the biggest energy expense numerically and psychologically, is down by 7% since Inauguration Day, to less than $3 a gallon. That’s around the lowest price in five years but still far short of Trump’s pledge. The potential for further declines looks limited, given structural increases in gas station costs and a bounce in pump prices in January. The Department of Energy projects a 5.8% decline in the average price this year.
Real Energy Costs Fell Way Short of Trump’s Target
Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis; ClearView Energy Partners
Note: Gasoline data from October 2025 are estimated.
Electricity and natural gas prices, meanwhile, have risen faster than inflation. This mostly reflects utilities’ investment in grids, and is, therefore, sticky. The boom in data centers is inflationary for now, even though it has the potential to eventually reduce energy bills.
Data delays due to last year’s government shutdown complicate analyzing the real burden of energy costs. During 2025 through November, energy’s share of disposable personal income had declined by a modest 0.1 percentage point to 3.29%. December likely had a similar decrease, based on estimates from ClearView Energy Partners, since the drop in prices at the pump accelerated into year end, before ticking back up.
On that basis, the real cost of energy perhaps ended 2025 around 10% lower. But the big driver of that, last year’s drop in global crude oil prices, seems to have bottomed out. The best that can be said of Trump’s pledges is that they were absurd to begin with.
Who gets credit for the plummeting murder rate?
Crime was falling across the US long before Trump took his oath of office. The decline has since broadened and accelerated.
Of particular note are aggravated assaults, which no longer stand out as the stubborn outlier in the Real-Time Crime Index, which collects monthly data from more than 500 law enforcement agencies. Now, aggravated assaults are falling like other crimes. The 2025 US murder rate may turn out to be the lowest since 1900, which is as far back as records go.
The president is, understandably, claiming credit for this turn of events. Should he get it?
The Crime Decline Has Accelerated Under Trump
Source: Real-Time Crime Index
Note: The RTCI tracks crime across 587 law enforcement agencies.
The main law enforcement priority of the Trump administration has been deporting undocumented immigrants. Immigrants overall are much less crime-prone than native-born Americans. That may be different for those in the US illegally (there’s not enough reliable data to say for sure), but it’s unlikely they’re a significant driver of national crime trends.
It could be, though, that fear of deportation is discouraging those with uncertain immigration status from both committing crimes and reporting them. In Chicago, for example, 911 calls plummeted during the federal government’s “Midway Blitz” immigration enforcement effort last year.
The sharp and widespread drop in murders, which has occurred in cities with lots of immigrants and cities with few, defies such explanation. Whatever or whoever is responsible, it’s cause for celebration.
Health coverage is going to shrink
If you only look at insurance coverage, you might think Trump’s second term won’t affect health-care access much. After all, the rate of uninsured Americans remained at a near-historic low in 2025. But make no mistake: Major policy changes will likely cause those numbers to surge in the coming years.
The first people to drop off the rolls will be those who benefited from Biden-era subsidies that significantly lowered the price of Affordable Care Act plans. Republicans let those credits expire at the end of 2025. A nonpartisan government analysis predicted it would cost nearly 4 million Americans their insurance.
The Low Uninsured Rate Won’t Last Long
Source: National Health Interview Survey
Note: 2025 data through June, the most recent survey available.
When early enrollment numbers showed a more modest decline of about 1 million, critics argued that fears had been overblown. But the situation could look a lot worse when the final data drops. Many people who let their plans automatically renew experienced sticker shock in January, likely prompting some to migrate to cheaper but inadequate plans. Others might have dropped coverage altogether.
Medicaid recipients will also be struck by the fallout from the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, which cut nearly $1 trillion from the program. After strict new work requirements take effect this year, almost 10 million more people are expected to lose coverage.
Trump’s solution, the Great Healthcare Plan, calls for government funds to be sent to consumers via Health Savings Accounts, which can be used to pay for services (but not insurance itself). So far, no actual policy has materialized.
Trade had its wildest year ever
When it comes to the White House’s goal of eliminating the trade deficit, 2025 not only proved how hard the task would be but the consequences of getting it wrong.
America’s shortfall in international trade was $901.5 billion in 2025, little changed from $903.5 billion in 2024 and one of the largest in data going back to 1960. Focusing solely on that, however, fails to tell the whole story of the wildest year on record for trade between the US and the rest of the world.
America’s 2025 Trade Deficit Was Among the Worst on Record
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis via Bloomberg
Businesses frontloaded purchases of imported goods in early 2025 to avoid paying whatever tariffs Trump planned to levy. The trade deficit subsequently totaled a massive $384 billion in the first three months of the year. Trump then outlined punitive tariffs on US trading partners in April (including uninhabited Antarctic islands).
Imports predictably returned to more normal levels but without the big boost in exports the White House desired. That is, until October when the deficit shrank to $29 billion, the narrowest since 2009. So the tariffs must have worked, right? Wrong. A big reason the shortfall contracted was foreign accounts repatriating their holdings of gold and other precious metals out of the US — hardly a vote of confidence in American leadership.
The rest of the world is also moving away from the US. The European Union completed a landmark trade deal in January with key South American countries that was 25 years in the making. Canada has also deepened its ties with Asia, including reaching a wide-ranging agreement with China to lower barriers.
Tariffs won’t solve the deficit problem
America’s ever-changing tariffs have raised a lot of money, but they won’t get the budget deficit back on track, despite Trump’s exaggerated claims. The White House promises new tariff actions now that the Supreme Court has struck down most of the measures introduced last year. But even if they raise as much as first planned — upward of $250 billion a year in 2026 and beyond — that won’t be nearly enough.
Suppose the White House somehow succeeds in maintaining average tariffs of more than 13%, up from 2.5% in 2024. The government would still need to borrow almost $2 trillion in the 2026 fiscal year. That’s roughly 6% of gross domestic product. Deficits this big would keep public debt, already just shy of 100% of GDP, trending unsustainably upward.
Shrinking the Budget Deficit Is Nobody’s Top Priority
Source: US Department of the Treasury via Bloomberg
Why can’t tariffs solve the problem? Partly because the One Big Beautiful Bill Act canceled out the extra revenues and then some. The OBBBA extended tax cuts that were due to expire and threw in additional giveaways (such as no taxes on tips, a bigger deduction for state and local taxes and a new break for seniors). Meanwhile, the big spending programs — Medicare and Social Security — keep costing more, thanks to rising health-care costs and an aging population.
What’s worse, fiscally speaking, is that future tariff revenues are utterly unreliable. The Supreme Court’s recent ruling underlines the point. Yes, the White House has other options, but the amounts raised will probably go down. Complaints from voters and investors could force additional retreats. Deficits and debt would then expand faster, which would put upward pressure on interest rates, raising servicing costs and fueling further fiscal problems.
It’s stunning that, despite the numbers, nobody in Washington much cares. Arguments about taxes and spending rage on, but fiscal discipline? What’s that?
The stock rally still has room to run
American presidents, particularly from Bill Clinton on, have had the good fortune of leading alongside a US-centered technology revolution. It contributed to the longest economic expansions on record and a raging, rarely interrupted bull market in stocks.
Trump has been a notable beneficiary. The S&P 500 Index returned 16% a year during his first term, including dividends. That’s nearly double its long-term return of 9% a year. The streak extended under Joe Biden and into Trump’s second term.
The Stock Market Has Been Good to Recent Presidents
Source: Bloomberg
Presidents can get in the way of a good thing — or give markets fuel. As with his first term, Trump is hoping tax cuts and deregulation will be tailwinds, along with the administration’s efforts to stoke domestic investment. His attempts to weaken the dollar may also help exporters, including numerous S&P 500 companies with a global footprint. The dollar declined 12% during his first term and is down another 9% in his second term.
Markets can’t ask for a more accommodating environment. The economy is growing briskly. Inflation expectations are low and anchored. Short-term rates are near a reasonably neutral rate, and unemployment is historically low. That points to modest-but-stable returns from bonds and most commodities, giving stocks room to outperform.
The risk with Trump is that one bold, sudden move could spook markets. An unfavorable spike in rates and commodity prices isn’t out of the question either, if geopolitical tensions escalate in Russia or the Middle East or South America or Greenland. Or a crisis of confidence in the dollar resulting from tariffs or meddling with the Fed sends the greenback lower than anyone wants.
Inequality is no longer narrowing. Blame housing
Trump is finding it hard to replicate the remarkable success of his first term in reversing some of the decades-long increase in wealth inequality. The lackluster housing market bears much of the blame.
During the first three quarters of 2025, every income group experienced an increase in total net wealth, or assets minus debt, according to Federal Reserve data. But low earners saw much smaller gains than high earners. That’s because the first group tends to concentrate whatever wealth it has in real estate, which barely appreciated.
Wealth Increased Most for High Earners in 2025
Source: The Federal Reserve
Note: Net worth growth for each administration is calculated as a steady annual rate.
Meanwhile, last year’s roaring stock market disproportionately rewarded those more exposed to equities. Real estate was 42% of low earners’ total assets in 2025, about the same exposure as higher earners — the 80th to 99th percentile — had to stocks.
During Trump’s first term rising house prices, along with strong wage gains for workers, helped narrow wealth inequality. This trend extended into the Biden years, which featured a big increase in real-estate values.
Looking ahead, the newly announced “Trump Accounts” will increase stock ownership and improve asset diversification for low earners, a small step toward helping narrow the wealth gap. But with less wealth to invest, they will continue to prioritize owning a home. If Trump wants to reduce inequality, he should focus on both expanding homeownership among lower earners and increasing the value of housing — two goals that may be at odds with each other.
Clean energy is winning against efforts to crush it
A year ago, I predicted the Trump administration’s assault on climate science and action would help China widen its lead on the US in the energy technologies of the future. I was only partly right.
The president attacked the clean-energy transition last year with far more vigor and venom than most people expected. In spite of that, the US actually gained a little ground on China in cleantech investments in 2025. US investment ticked up by about 1% to $263 billion, not counting spending on electrical grids, according to Bloomberg NEF. Chinese investment fell nearly 6% to a still massive and world-leading $704 billion as new power-market rules stripped some advantages from renewables.
The US Lags the World in Cleantech
Source: BloombergNEF
Note: Data exclude investment in power grids.
The truly interesting moves happened just about everywhere else. Cleantech investment boomed in Europe and the UK combined, jumping nearly 20% to $439 billion. It also climbed 20% in the rest of the world, led by India, Japan and Vietnam.
It’s easy to guess Trump will keep waging war on cleantech in 2026. How successful he’ll be is less clear. The speed and low cost of building renewables will keep them attractive to the data centers Trump wants, and courts have not been his ally in quashing projects he opposes. The other big question is whether Trump’s climate recalcitrance will tempt more governments to backslide. The only sure thing is that none of these investments are bold enough yet to slow the course of global heating and avoid its worst impacts.
Trump’s falling popularity has become a problem
Trump’s approval rating has taken a dive over the past year, weakened by doubts about his handling of the economy and immigration enforcement.
The president’s rating has sunk to 37%, close to his all-time low of 33% in the wake of the Jan. 6 attack on the US Capitol at the end of his first term, according to the most recent Quinnipiac University poll. That number is down from 45% in February 2025.
Trump’s Popularity Is Nearing an All-Time Low
Source: Quinnipiac University Poll
Voters, expecting Trump to lower living costs, swept him back into office amid a global anti-incumbent wave triggered by inflation. They’ve been disappointed. Fifty-six percent disapprove of how Trump is handling the economy — which is far and away voters’ most important issue — up from 48% a year ago.
Immigration had also been a strength for Trump, who campaigned on sealing borders — and did so shortly after taking office. But the chaotic and, at times, violent mass-deportation campaign has taken a political toll. Now, 59% of voters disapprove of his handling of immigration, which they rank among the most urgent issues facing the country, according to Quinnipiac. That’s up from 49% a year ago.
Despite a few high-profile conservatives breaking with Trump, there is little sign of a softening of support among Republican voters: 86% approve of the job he is doing. But Trump didn’t win a second term simply by performing well among Republicans. He won with a much broader coalition, including Independent voters in key states. Now, just 31% of independents approve of his handling of his job, down from 43% in February 2025. That is a very bad number heading into the midterms, which will be a referendum on Trump and his party.
