Bundestag Election 2025 Germany’s Splintered Politics Complicates Coalition Building
Germany’s conservative Christian Democrat-led bloc secured 208 out of 630 seats in the lower house of parliament, meaning its leader, Friedrich Merz, will have to navigate complicated coalition negotiations to secure a Bundestag majority of at least 316 seats.
The CDU/CSU alliance has ruled Germany for almost 50 of the 80 years since World War II, but voter support for both of its long-standing coalition partners — the SPD and FDP — has plunged.
While the SPD emerged as Merz’s likely coalition partner, the share of the vote for both the center-left party and the CDU/CSU was close to record lows, with the Social Democrats coming in third place — a first in their 135-year history.
A so-called grand coalition between the two parties would secure a relatively thin majority of 52% of seats, far below the 80‑90% “supermajorities” it used to command.
Deprived of FDP, Christian Democrat-Led Bloc Will Likely Partner With Weakened Social Democrats
Sources: Federal Returning Officer; ParlGov
Note: Only coalitions led by the CDU/CSU are displayed. From 1949 to 1961, the monarchist German Party (DP) was a junior partner in the ruling coalition. In 1957, the CDU/CSU secured an absolute majority of seats and still formed a coalition with the DP.
The CDU/CSU historically formed a conservative-liberal coalition with the FDP, but the business-friendly party was ousted from parliament after falling short of the 5% threshold for securing seats in the Bundestag.
316
Majority needed
Source: Federal Returning Officer
From the left to the far right, here are all 630 newly elected members of the Bundestag:
A grand coalition with the SPD would only have a slim majority of 13 seats.
Merz could also choose to join forces with both the SPD and the Greens, forming a so-called Kenya coalition that would hold a strong majority in parliament.
Unprecedented at the federal level, this coalition — a reference to the Kenyan flag — has been tried before in three eastern states. This would be the second time a three-way coalition governed Germany.
With the AfD winning a record 152 seats, the largest two-way partnership would be a black-blue coalition . This combination remains very unlikely: Merz has categorically ruled out an alliance with the far-right party, which has never been part of any coalition in any state.
Your turn! Select possible coalitions to see what would reach a majority in the Bundestag.
Although a revival of the grand coalition at the federal level looks likely, German politics has become increasingly splintered and some federal states have seen unusual alliances in recent years.
Germany’s Increasingly Fragmented Political Landscape Fosters Exotic Coalitions
The coalition has been tried at the federal level and in three states, starting from 1990. Rhineland-Palatinate has been ruled by such a coalition since 2016.
- SPD
- CDU/CSU
- FDP
- Greens
- The Left
- BSW
- Others
- Leading coalition partner
Federal government
Baden-Württemberg
Bavaria
Berlin
Bremen
Hamburg
Hesse
Lower Saxony
North Rhine-Westphalia
Rhineland-Palatinate
Saarland
Schleswig-Holstein
Brandenburg
Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania
Saxony
Saxony-Anhalt
Thuringia
Sources: ParlGov; German states; Valentin Schröder (2024), cabinets in German states since 1945
Note: Coalitions may include other minor parties as junior coalition partners. Former parties that merged with the FDP or the Left are labeled as such. In Berlin, ruling coalitions refer to the state government of West Berlin until 1990. In Hamburg, the conservative-liberal coalition from 2001–2004 included the short-lived, right-wing populist Party for a Rule of Law Offensive (PRO) as main coalition partner to the CDU. In Lower Saxony, the ruling conservative-liberal and grand coalition governments from 1955–1959 were led by a prime minister from the monarchist German Party (DP), a junior partner in the coalitions. In Schleswig-Holstein, the FDP was absent from the ruling conservative-liberal coalition between 1952–1954, which then included the All-German Bloc/League of Expellees and Deprived of Rights (GB/GHE) as a major coalition partner.