Viz.
Trump’s Vow to “Stop Wars” Is Easier Said than Done
An analysis of over 500 conflicts shows they rarely end easily
In his Nov. 7 victory speech, President-elect Donald Trump vowed to “stop wars,” and he’s already shaping US policy in two major hot spots: Israel and Ukraine.
But history tells us that modern wars rarely end easily, if at all.
Since World War Two, over 500 wars have ended, according to the UCDP Conflict Termination Dataset of armed conflicts with over 25 deaths per year between 1946 and 2019.
Only a Quarter of Modern Wars End in Peaceful Negotiation
In the 2010s, almost two thirds of terminated wars ‘ended’ with battle-related deaths dropping below 25 per year, transforming them into low-level, long-term conflicts.
Even when wars end, peace doesn’t always last — 118 conflicts had resumed after a spell of amity.
Long-term peace persisted more often when governments were the victors or peacekeepers were deployed. If the conflict involved warring ethnicities though, violence was more likely to begin again in the aftermath, according to the UCDP.
Trump may be focused on stopping the wars, but creating and maintaining sustainable peace is a whole other battle.