Hong Kong Needs Its Angriest Generation More Than Ever
The black-clad protesters who have battled for the political destiny of Hong Kong this year are also the future of its economy.
The students and recent graduates who form the bulk of the protesting populace are set to also be part of a generational shift in the city’s labor force, as the working-age population enters decline. Citizens starting their careers face a heavier burden in supporting Hong Kong’s future prosperity, and the raging political turmoil makes that all the more difficult.
According to research led by academics including Chinese University of Hong Kong professor Francis Lee, the profile of protest participants since June is predominantly university educated, under 30, and middle class.
Who Are the Protesters
Source: Onsite Survey Findings in Hong Kong’s Anti-Extradition Bill Protests, Center for Communication and Public Opinion Survey, The Chinese University of Hong Kong
The prime working age population—individuals between 25 and 54—in the city of 7 million has already peaked, and is projected to decline by more than 7% from now until the city’s special status within China elapses in 2047 and almost 14% by 2066, the end-point of current government forecasts.
That means that the students who threw petrol bombs across the barricades this summer will, all else being equal, have to produce more economic output per person just to keep the economy at a stable size.
Greater Burden to Carry
Source: Census and Statistics Department
Using United Nations data, Qian Wan at Bloomberg Economics in Hong Kong sees the ratio of working to non-working people in Hong Kong deteriorating to a level close to Japan’s, and worse than mainland China’s, by 2030. “A demographic dividend that helped drive Hong Kong's growth for decades has been dwindling rapidly, making it a bigger challenge for the city to unleash productivity,” she said.
A declining workforce implies the need for either increases in productivity or immigration to plug the gap if the economy is to grow. That calls for investments in education, skills, and a dynamic future-oriented workforce. Neither Hong Kong’s current policy makers nor its future workers are focused on that task, amid the unrest.
Policies announced by the government to address the immediate recession and the long-term structural shortcomings of the economy have been derided as insufficient.
With regard to immigration, as one of the world’s most expensive cities, Hong Kong faces problems attracting highly skilled foreign workers. Now there’s also the risk of more people leaving permanently to escape the uncertainty. Naturally the main source of immigration is neighboring mainland China, but that’s problematic, as the protests have been increasingly anti-China.
Where They Were Born
Source: Census and Statistics Department
While Hong Kongers worry about encroaching “mainlandization” and the political control that Beijing wields, the flow of people from across the border isn’t tailored to reverse the demographic trend.
A quota of 150 mainlanders per day is allowed to settle in the territory. In recent years, that amount has gone unfilled, with about 42,000 arriving in 2018. The total number of residents born elsewhere in Greater China is largely stable, at about 2.3 million.
The generation of disaffected Hong Kongers at the barricades is predominantly university-educated. The incoming mainland workers mostly have a high-school education, government data show. A program to encourage higher-skilled workers to settle in Hong Kong attracted about 15,000 arrivals in 2018.
A Different Demographic From Mainland China
Sources: Home Affairs Department and Immigration Department
The boldest policy initiative to shape the city’s economy in recent years hasn’t been focused on fixing its own long-term structural problems. Instead, the Greater Bay Area initiative, laid out in detail in February this year before the current unrest started, is an effort to bind Hong Kong with cities like Guangzhou in the Pearl River Delta into a world-beating economic cluster.
An economy more tightly integrated with the mainland is, however, a destiny that the professionals of Hong Kong’s future are taking to the streets to prevent.