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Prediction markets such as Polymarket and Kalshi let bettors wager on everything—wars, elections, Elon Musk’s weekly X posts. As pollsters falter and sports gambling rules ease under President Donald Trump, these platforms have emerged as informal oracles that many believe can help predict economic indicators and major cultural events. For a no-stakes alternative, Bloomberg Businessweek created our own.

For 25 years, the US has held measles “elimination status.” But countries lose that designation if an outbreak persists beyond 12 months. Signs indicate the Texas outbreak that began last January may still be spreading, raising the risk that the World Health Organization will proclaim the streak over.

The world’s most famous soccer tournament is coming to North America at a time when US sports leagues are riding the wave of legalized gambling—and struggling to contain betting scandals. Soccer has its own track record of such problems and could end up in a tricky position this summer.

US Supreme Court justices serve for life, and some stay nearly that long. Oliver Wendell Holmes Jr. set the record by retiring at 90. More recently, Stephen Breyer wasn’t far behind at 83. Clarence Thomas is comparatively spry, but rumors abound that the 77-year-old is weighing an exit under this Republican administration.

The right and left have started to coalesce on the value of school cellphone bans, which now exist in 14 states. The unusual agreement mirrors shifting public opinion—74% of US adults now support these restrictions.

AfD, a party that Germany’s domestic intelligence agency has classified as “right-wing extremist,” has made big electoral gains in recent years. If the party comes out ahead in state elections, it may be on course to win national office.

Korea’s “ultra-low fertility” is far below the replacement rate some experts think is needed to stave off economic peril. Modest gains have been made since July 2024, though it’s unclear if that will continue—and if it will be enough to secure the country's financial future.

Before taking office, Trump boasted he would stop the conflict in Ukraine within 24 hours of becoming president. Almost a year into his term, he still hasn’t delivered. Trump is now putting heavy pressure on Volodymyr Zelenskiy to accept a peace deal, even if it tilts toward the Kremlin’s interests.

The longest shutdown in history ended in November, but the federal government is funded only through January. If major issues such as health care remain unresolved, another shutdown is eminently possible.

French police have arrested several suspects in the theft of $100 million in crown jewels, but they still haven’t managed to find the loot itself. The hunt continues.

Seven years after Apple crossed the trillion-dollar threshold, the AI boom has made tech companies with 13-digit valuations seem less extraordinary. Apple, Alphabet, Microsoft and Nvidia now exceed $3 trillion. Amazon.com, Broadcom, Meta Platforms and Tesla may join them. But a bursting AI bubble could send valuations tumbling.