In a strained economy, sacrifices will inevitably be made. Kitchen renovations, postponed. Family vacations, downscaled. Freshly prepared slop bowls, forsaken.

For many of the fast-casual chains that have grown so much over the past decade, the economic slowdown that already hit the fast-food industry has finally arrived. Only now, as chains like McDonald’s and Burger King boast rebounds helped by deals on discounted meals, healthy fast casuals are discovering that even relatively well-to-do workers have their limits.

The industry’s last round of earnings laid bare how vulnerable this once fast-growing niche really is. The most striking results came from Sweetgreen Inc., the chain that taught office workers to spend $17 on a sad desk salad. Its sales fell 9.5% in the third quarter from the prior-year period, even more than Wall Street had predicted, sending its shares plummeting; as of Dec. 15, it had lost 77% of its market value in 2025. Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc., the first national chain to market ingredients as more ethically sourced—and therefore worth more money—also delivered bad news. After predicting its performance in 2025 would be flat with 2024’s, it now says it will see a sales decline in the low-single-digit range. Its shares were down 40% for the year as of Dec. 15. Cava Group Inc., the once-unstoppable maker of Mediterranean bowls, says foot traffic has stalled. It still expects sales growth from existing restaurants for the year, but only 3% to 4%, it says, not the 4% to 6% once predicted. The grim reports have led some to speculate that the entire lunch bowl concept could be coming to an end.

One obvious alternative for the health- and budget-conscious office worker is brown-bagging it. Buying groceries and making salads at home is always cheaper than buying one prepared to order at a counter, as is grabbing a protein bar or yogurt on the way out the door. For convenience-seekers, whole meals can be picked up at the supermarket or even ordered online. Walmart.com sells a premade Farmers Fridge grilled chicken Caesar salad in a jar for under $8—no brown bag, or trip to the store, needed.

At least some bowl customers are also trading down to fast food. Taco Bell parent company Yum! Brands Inc. has recently cited the trend, and Chris Kempczinski, chief executive officer of McDonald’s Corp., alluded to it in an earnings call in November, noting that the chain was increasingly bringing in “that upper-income consumer who is still looking for good value.” David Portalatin, the food-service adviser at market research group Circana, says the proportion of lunches bought from restaurants, cafeterias and other food-service establishments remained stable at 23% for the three months ended in September, signaling that dropping out of Sweetgreen might mean going to Chick-fil-A instead. After all, the chain known for its crispy chicken sandwiches also makes some highly respectable crispy chicken salads, and Taco Bell does Chipotle-style bowls. Both fast-food chains sell these options for around $11 in pricey Manhattan.

The fast-food industry has been through enough economic cycles to know that, when customers get stingy, it’s time for the discounts. Kempczinski pointed to McDonald’s offers such as the $5 Sausage McMuffin with Egg Meal and $8 Big Mac Meal as success stories during the earnings call. At Burger King, too, the promos are working. To no one’s surprise, the chain’s $5 and $7 meal deals are resonating particularly with “guests who are focused on their budgets,” said Joshua Kobza, CEO of Burger King owner Restaurant Brands International Inc., in a call with analysts in late October.

And yet, Chipotle and Cava both seem allergic to the suggestion that lower prices might help with flagging demand. “Value as a price point is not and will not be a Chipotle strategy,” said CEO Scott Boatwright in a recent earnings call, even while acknowledging that the fast-casual sector “has been deemed unaffordable.” A few days later, in his company’s earnings call with analysts, Cava CEO Brett Schulman, said basically the same. “This is the most intense discount environment since the Great Recession,” he said, before indicating that his company won’t be participating. “Our value proposition, we believe, is much more holistic than a price point.” He defined this, in part, as Cava’s “exceptional guest experiences,” which include seemingly unexceptional things like getting orders right and offering ample portions.

The executives then argued that their food isn’t as expensive as everyone thinks. Boatwright complained that customers seem to lump Chipotle in with competitors around the $15 mark, when diners can actually “get extraordinary value for around $10.” The company even tested an ad around that exact point, he said. But alas, “in the testing, the consumer missed that message.” (Perhaps it’s because consumers have been to Chipotle and know they always seem to walk out spending more than that.) Less than a week later, Cava’s Schulman gave the same spiel. “We’re not oblivious to the commentary about the $20 lunch,” he said, before talking up a chicken bowl available in New York for $12.95.

Schulman repeated these talking points in an email to Bloomberg Businessweek, saying, “Consumers aren’t just looking for the cheapest meal.” He mentioned the company’s grilled chicken bowls available for under $13, and added that the company is focused on “generous portions, vibrant flavors, and genuine hospitality,” and that it has increased prices less than the restaurant industry average. Sweetgreen and Chipotle declined to comment for this story.

The resistance to discounting is understandable, given that fast-casual chains were built around the idea that people would pay more for something if they saw it as better than the bare minimum. There are good reasons for healthier lunches to cost more. Filling bowls with soon-to-wilt, easily damaged lettuce costs more than deep-frying everlasting frozen, precut French fries. The labor required to make fresh guacamole on-site will almost certainly cost more than preparing a guacamole-like substance that begins its in-store life in a plastic sack. Add in ubiquitous delivery apps taking their own cut of the revenue, plus tariffs and inflation, and the math is just hard, regardless of how many workers are now back in their offices.

Nonetheless, a recalibration in customer expectations is underway. At market research firm Technomic, analysts track how consumers perceive value. “Price became the most important factor this year for the first time” in the restaurant category, says Richard Shank, vice president for innovation, speaking about how consumers consider the various components of value. “It used to sit in the fourth position,” after quality, service and portion size.

In December, Just Salad dropped the price of one of its market plates from $14.99 to $9.99 in Manhattan; sales more than doubled. Sweetgreen has told investors it’s evaluating its prices, offering a loyalty program that comes with discounts here and there, providing some lower-priced seasonal options and, in December, a $10 bowl. Getting people back in the door may require Sweetgreen to make such offerings a regular presence on the menu, which would render the difficult economics of an industry with famously thin margins even more challenging.

There’s one obvious way to drive down the cost of bowl-making, though: Offer smaller salads at a discount. A so-called healthy lunch can get close to the 1,000 calorie mark at many fast-casual restaurants, which is more than many people—especially the increasing number taking GLP-1 weight loss drugs—are looking for in the middle of the day. People want decent portions for the money they’re spending, and there’s reputational risk in hiding what are effectively price increases by serving smaller meals with higher per-calorie prices. Then again, people also don’t like throwing food away or eating more than they really want to. Fast-food restaurants once found success by offering customers much more food for a bit more money. Maybe it’s time for fast-casual restaurants to do the opposite—and cater to the crowd who thinks that, in this economy, less is more.