Surveillance: 10 Things to Know About Markets as You Look Ahead
We asked these 10 financial professionals to highlight investing opportunities they think will perform well over the next year and to discuss the most important topics not making headlines. Here’s what they had to say.
“Alpha goes to the Hamptons and becomes beta.”
Brendan MacMillan
Chief Investment Officer at Ocean Road Advisors
“In our view, U.S. auto sales were too high last fall. That needed to correct, which seems to be happening. Much of the slowdown in consumption through Q1 related to autos. Aside from auto, consumption looks fine. So that may be a good way to gauge the strength of consumption and, in turn, the domestic economy.”
Michael Gapen
Chief U.S. Economist, Barclays
“Most of us focus primarily on one equity benchmark, but the SPX does not tell the whole story of the market. Global markets are intertwined more than ever, and as a gauge of market breadth, the SPX arguably falls short of small-cap and equal-weighted indices.”
Katie Stockton
Chief Technical Strategist, BTIG
“Old tech is supercheap and priced for obsolescence, but it’s throwing off a lot of capital and returning cash to shareholders.”
Savita Subramanian
Head of U.S. Equity and Quantitative Strategy, Bank of America Merrill Lynch
“There are reasons to like emerging markets right now. You’ve got valuations that are exceptionally cheap—historically so, when you compare them to 1999 and 2008 levels. Sometimes you have to close your eyes, hold your nose, buy them, and hope the catalyst comes around.”
Anastasia Amoroso
Global Market Strategist, Jpmorgan Asset Management
“Quarterly estimates of U.S. corporate profits have been exceeded every single quarter since mid-2009. Weakness is largely confined to energy and materials. We’ll start to see marginally positive aggregate profit growth again in Q2 despite what estimates now say.”
Steven Wieting
Global Chief Strategist, Citi Private Bank
“We’ve begun to see value stocks starting to outperform. We think it is the beginning of a new trend—it just needs some time to play itself out.”
Ernesto Ramos
Head Of Equities, BMO Global Asset Management
“The global economy inflected, which creates economic recovery. In our view, that isn’t being discounted enough by investors. You’re having a groundswell of potential, and as that develops over the next year, one of the first sectors to do well should be financials—also the leading sector after the 2011 low.”
Tony Dwyer
Chief Market Strategist/Senior Managing Director, Canaccord Genuity
“Investors see the market as too expensive given an above-average p-e ratio and below-average earnings growth expectations. However, they underestimate the potential upside for stocks in a stable, nonrecessionary economic environment where interest rates and inflation remain extremely low.”
Jonathan Golub
Chief U.S. Market Strategist, RBC Capital Markets
“There’s an incredible statistic in the United Kingdom: You are more likely to get divorced than change your bank account.”
Ben Lofthouse
Portfolio Manager, Henderson Global Investors
With additional reporting by Jacqueline Fabozzi, Jen Haley, and Ashe Reardon
This story appears in the July/August 2016 issue of Bloomberg Markets magazine.



